What about CO2 sanctions ?

Are BCG projections compatible with the regulatory constraints imposed on car manufacturers ? We will skip here New Energy Vehicles quotas imposed by China and whose formula is exceedingly  complex.

In the European Union (and by extension in Switzerland), CO2 targets are 95 g/km in 2020, 81 g/km in 2025 and 59 g/km in 2030, adapted for each manufacturer group based on weight.

Our scenarii lead to the conclusion that BMW or Mercedes would have to sell in Europe significantly more than 10% of their volume as PHEV or BEV to avoid heavy yearly fines. The BCG study only projects 4% of BEVs and 4% PHEVs for 2022 for the whole european market.

At the leading edge of electrification of a traditional portfolio, VW Group, the world’s largest automaker, forecasts to reach 6% of european sales with BEVs in 2020 and 26% in 2025. Audi, the premium mass market brand of the group, targets 40% of its 2025 worldwide sales to come from electrified models (MHEV + PHEV + BEV).

BCG is explicit in its conclusion: without further incentives, automakers are going to miss their CO2 targets and pay substantial fines.

Eye on the ball

The BCG study includes in exhibit 5 a CO2 footprint analysis for variants of a C-segment compact car, driven over a life cycle of 150’000 km:

The pertinence of these assumptions and results depends in part on where the time marker is set: present time ? 2025 ? 2030 ? The overall conclusion remains however the same as in the other studies we have examined: in climate terms, electric cars are at worst equivalent to combustion cars with dirty electricity, and beneficial when the grid becomes cleaner.

Converting the car fleet to electric power is therefore a necessary condition for sustainable mobility, but not sufficient. Production and storage of clean electricity are mandatory to achieve the stated goals.

Links

Forum topic – car industry articles – further reading: